Legislature(2011 - 2012)BUTROVICH 205

04/08/2011 03:30 PM Senate RESOURCES


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03:46:36 PM Start
03:48:04 PM SB49
05:02:18 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+= SB 49 PRODUCTION TAX ON OIL AND GAS TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
              SB  49-PRODUCTION TAX ON OIL AND GAS                                                                          
                                                                                                                              
CO-CHAIR  PASKVAN announced  the  business  before the  committee                                                               
would be  to consider  the merits  of SB  49 learning  from Cathy                                                               
Foerster,  Commissioner of  the Alaska  Oil and  Gas Conservation                                                               
Commission (AOGCC). The AOGCC mission  is in part "To protect the                                                               
public  interest  in  exploration  and  development  of  Alaska's                                                               
valuable oil and  gas resources" and to  "ensure greater ultimate                                                               
recovery of those ... resources."  Commissioner Brian Butcher was                                                               
asked  to  attend  to  respond   to  questions  directed  to  the                                                               
Department  of Revenue  and Kevin  Banks would  be available  via                                                               
teleconference   to  respond   to  questions   directed  to   the                                                               
Department of Natural Resources (DNR).                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:48:04 PM                                                                                                                    
CATHY  FORESTER, Engineering  Commissioner,  Alaska  Oil and  Gas                                                               
Conservation  Commission (AOGCC),  introduced  herself and  noted                                                               
that  she asked  AOGCC Commissioner  Dan Seamount  to attend  the                                                               
hearing via teleconference.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:49:34 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI joined the committee.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  explained that because  of the common  feeling that                                                               
oil price is the primary  driver behind decisions relating to oil                                                               
and  gas expenditures,  most of  the charts  in the  presentation                                                               
will  have   permitting,  exploration,  drilling,   and  workover                                                               
activities  superimposed  on graphs  depicting  an  oil price  or                                                               
trend.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
She  displayed a  graph depicting  the first  purchase price  for                                                               
U.S.  crude oil  from  1950  to 2010  and  noted  that oil  price                                                               
information older than the mid-1970s  was surprising difficult to                                                               
find. The curve reflects the  nominal price paid to the operating                                                               
company when the  produced oil was metered and  then removed from                                                               
the lease or lease sales. She  noted that the graph was available                                                               
online from the U.S. Energy Information Agency.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
The page 4 graph depicted West  Coast spot prices for North Slope                                                               
crude from  1995 to 2010.  She noted  that the shorter  term look                                                               
was probably more  germane. The page 5 graph showed  the U.S. and                                                               
North Slope price forecasts in  the background to illustrate that                                                               
prices were very close over the shorter term.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:52:23 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR FRENCH said he recently  read an article in the Petroleum                                                               
News  that pointed  out that  for the  last several  months North                                                               
Slope  Crude had  brought a  premium  for over  the average  U.S.                                                               
price,  which is  contrary to  the normal  history of  prices. He                                                               
asked if that price premium had come to her attention.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied she wasn't aware of that.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR WAGONER  added that he's  not sure why but  Alaska crude                                                               
was $120  last night  and today  the West  Coast price  was $110.                                                               
That represents roughly an 8 percent difference.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  FRENCH said  the article  pointed out  that for  several                                                               
months  Alaska Crude  had been  as much  as $10  over West  Texas                                                               
Intermediate.  This is  highly unusual  and has  something to  do                                                               
with a  supply glut in  the Midwest  and tighter supplies  on the                                                               
West Coast.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:54:22 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR STEDMAN  reminded the  committee that  the issue  of West                                                               
Texas not being the benchmark was discussed last year.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  said  the  next  chart  shows  world  events  that                                                               
correspond to  pronounced changes in  crude oil prices  from 1970                                                               
to  2010. She  noted that  this  graph introduces  a third  price                                                               
trend,  the  U.S.  price  in real  dollars,  and  suggested  it's                                                               
helpful  to  be  reminded  of the  difference  between  real  and                                                               
nominal over time.  She pointed out that in  1986 pandemonium set                                                               
in after Saudi Arabia abandoned the role of swing producer.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
She said  the graph on page  7 shows Alaska oil  and gas activity                                                               
from 1950 to  2010. The number of drilling permits  issued by the                                                               
AOGCC is superimposed over the  U.S. nominal price. She explained                                                               
that from the  late 1950s to the late 1960s  oil and gas activity                                                               
in Alaska  occurred predominantly  in the  Cook Inlet  Basin, and                                                               
about  1968 on  that  work  took a  backseat  to exploration  and                                                               
development  on the  North  Slope.  The spike  in  the number  of                                                               
permits  between   1977  and  1985   reflects  the   emphasis  on                                                               
developing the Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk,  and Milne Point oil fields.                                                               
The abrupt drop in the  number of approved permits from 1985-1987                                                               
probably reflects the abrupt drop  in oil price caused when Saudi                                                               
Arabia abandoned its price-controlling, swing producer role.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
In the  time period from the  late 1980s to present  day activity                                                               
has been  affected by  continued development  of Prudhoe  Bay and                                                               
Kuparuk as well  as exploration and development  in the satellite                                                               
fields within  the Prudhoe Bay  and Kuparuk units and  new fields                                                               
like  Alpine, Fjord,  Nanuq, Oooguruk,  and Niakuk.  In 1995  the                                                               
Kuparuk owners  reached alignment  on satellites and  that's when                                                               
those  fields started  to come  on.  It wasn't  possible to  move                                                               
forward without commercial  agreement among the owners  on how to                                                               
divide the  costs and  spoils of  those developments.  The severe                                                               
dip  in activity  in 1999  reflects that  the wellhead  price for                                                               
Alaska Crude  dropped to about $9  per barrel. That was  also the                                                               
year that both  BP and Arco were busy buying  and being bought so                                                               
a lot of effort was spend on activity other than drilling.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:57:34 PM                                                                                                                    
MS. FOERSTER said the graph on  page 8 adds a curve depicting the                                                               
number  of active  wells in  the state.  It illustrates  that the                                                               
number  of wells  has grown  steadily since  the late  1960s. She                                                               
explained  that active  wells must  be inspected  by AOGCC  field                                                               
personnel and  anything that has  not been plugged  and abandoned                                                               
is  considered active.  She noted  that the  legacy wells  in the                                                               
NPRA were not included.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH said he assumes that these are not all oil wells.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  responded that's correct  and some  aren't properly                                                               
abandoned so AOGCC has to keep an eye on them.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH asked how many actually are oil wells.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied  she didn't know but she'd find  out and get                                                               
back with the information.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if she had  a sense of what percent of                                                               
the leases were active.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER suggested  that Mr.  Banks with  the Department  of                                                               
Natural  Resources (DNR)  could better  answer the  question. She                                                               
noted that  he was available now  or he could follow  up later at                                                               
the committee's discretion.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN voiced  a preference for Ms.  Foerster to finish                                                               
the presentation.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  pointed out  that while  Alaska currently  has over                                                               
4,600  active  wells, that  number  is  small compared  to  other                                                               
states.  For  example,  Texas  has  over  300,000  active  wells,                                                               
California has  over 60,000, and  New York has about  12,000. The                                                               
reason for  the disparity is that  the Lower 48 states  have been                                                               
developing  their oil  and gas  resource  for a  lot longer  than                                                               
Alaska and they  don't have the access issues that  Alaska has so                                                               
they are  able to exploit  all their  basins. She noted  that Mr.                                                               
Seamount likes to  point out that Alaska has exploited  just 2 of                                                               
approximately 20 basins in the state.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  asked her to  expand her discussion  of why                                                               
Alaska has so  many fewer wells than other  producing states when                                                               
it's one of the leading producers of oil in the country.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOEFSTER  pointed out that  there's been production  going on                                                               
in  Texas  for over  100  years  and  oil wells  are  everywhere,                                                               
whereas Alaska has oil wells on  just the North Slope and in Cook                                                               
Inlet, which  doesn't represent  much of  the state's  land mass.                                                               
That being said,  the average production rate in  Alaska is about                                                               
150 BB/day while  the average production rate for  Texas wells is                                                               
less  than  10  BB/day.  This reflects  Texas's  long  production                                                               
history and  the large number  of "stripper wells"  in operation.                                                               
Because production  costs are relatively low,  somebody is making                                                               
money from those wells eking out a barrel here and there.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI noted  that over the last  decade the number                                                               
of rigs  consistently working in  Alaska has  been just 10  or 11                                                               
while  other states  have had  much  higher counts.  He asked  if                                                               
there's a correlation between rig counts and production.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER said  the  rig  count in  the  Lower  48 is  fairly                                                               
constant, but because of  the transportation infrastructure those                                                               
rigs  have  the ability  to  move  from state-to-state  over  the                                                               
course   of   a   season.  Alaska   isn't   connected   to   that                                                               
infrastructure so  it's expensive to  move a  rig up here  and it                                                               
has to be made "Alaska-ready" before it can be put to work.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
4:03:25 PM                                                                                                                    
MS. FOERSTER  said the  next graph overlays  the 130  some active                                                               
oil and  gas reservoirs  onto the  previous graph.  She mentioned                                                               
that the  number of wells has  grown steadily and that  the AOGCC                                                               
is responsible for monitoring and regulating each of them.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
She  next  displayed  a  timeline  showing  when  the  major  oil                                                               
producing fields  on the North  Slope were developed. A  red star                                                               
depicts  the time  of initial  discovery,  a gold  bar shows  the                                                               
period of initial  development leading to production  and a green                                                               
bar represents  the start  of regular  production. In  some cases                                                               
development  began  almost  immediately  and  for  a  variety  of                                                               
reasons there  was a lapse  of several  years or even  decades in                                                               
other cases.  One reason for  delay is that  technology sometimes                                                               
didn't exist  to make the play  viable. The West Sak  pool in the                                                               
Kuparuk River  field is a good  example of this. A  pilot well in                                                               
the 1980s  was unsuccessful, but  now that horizontal  and multi-                                                               
lateral technologies exist  that type of well  can produce enough                                                               
to be  commercially viable. Ugnu-Kuparuk  is another  example; in                                                               
this case, viscous oil technology is just now developing.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  FRENCH  asked  if  she knew  the  circumstances  of  the                                                               
Kuparuk River field. More than  a decade lapsed between discovery                                                               
and the beginning  of production and it's now  the second largest                                                               
oil field in North America.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  said her understanding  is that the  operators that                                                               
developed Prudhoe Bay also put  money into Kuparuk but their time                                                               
and money first went to develop the larger Prudhoe Bay field.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
She provided  several more  reasons that  development of  a field                                                               
may take time.  The pool may be too small  to justify stand-alone                                                               
facilities and  it's either too far  from existing infrastructure                                                               
or there isn't yet a commercial  agreement with the owners of the                                                               
nearby infrastructure. Also,  a small pool may be  underlain by a                                                               
bigger pool  and the  operator may wisely  decide to  product the                                                               
small  pool on  the way  out. For  example, Tabasco  overlies the                                                               
Kuparuk  reservoir and  the Brookian  is underlain  by the  Point                                                               
Thomson reservoir.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:07:09 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  PASKVAN returned  attention  to page  9  that shows  the                                                               
steady increase  in the number  of active oil and  gas reservoirs                                                               
and asked what that means to Alaskans.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  replied that  gradual  but  steady increase  is  a                                                               
normal way for a good oil basin  like the Cook Inlet or the North                                                               
Slope   to   develop.   Time  and   money   is   spent   building                                                               
infrastructure  to  get the  "big  elephant"  and over  time  the                                                               
smaller  operators come  in and  work commercial  agreements with                                                               
the large owners.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH  asked if  she would  take a  few minutes  to talk                                                               
about what  the AOGCC does and  a little of her  background since                                                               
the  entire  state  is  captivated by  both  current  and  future                                                               
activity on the North Slope.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER explained  that the Alaska Oil  and Gas Conservation                                                               
Commission   (AOGCC)  is   charged  with   preventing  waste   of                                                               
hydrocarbon   resources,   with  encouraging   greater   ultimate                                                               
recovery  of those  resources,  with  protecting the  correlative                                                               
rights  of the  owners of  those resources,  with protecting  the                                                               
fresh ground  waters during  drilling and  production operations,                                                               
and  with assuring  the safety  of  the people  working in  those                                                               
fields during the  operations under the AOGCC  purview. The AOGCC                                                               
recently  has  been given  other  responsibilities,  but for  the                                                               
purposes   of   the  discussion   today   those   are  the   core                                                               
responsibilities.   There   are  three   commissioners;   statute                                                               
requires one commissioner to be  a petroleum geologist, one to be                                                               
a  petroleum engineer,  and  one  to be  a  member with  relevant                                                               
experience to the  oil and gas industry.  That position currently                                                               
is filled by an attorney whose experience is extensive.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH asked  which position she filled and  how long she                                                               
had served on the commission.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  replied she's  the  petroleum  engineer and  she's                                                               
served for  about six years.  Before this  she had many  years in                                                               
the industry.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  STEVENS noted  that the  Governor  recently announced  a                                                               
goal of  one million barrels  [of oil production per  day through                                                               
the  Trans Alaska  Pipeline System  (TAPS) within  10 years]  and                                                               
asked if that volume is a concern.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:11:23 PM                                                                                                                    
MS. FOERSTER  replied she  tries not to  worry about  things that                                                               
are  beyond her  control but  she believes  that Alaska  has good                                                               
operators that are  doing a good job of  developing the resource.                                                               
If the  Legislature developed new ways  to incentivize additional                                                               
exploration  and production,  AOGCC  would  help implement  those                                                               
ideas. She stated that production  does decline in a mature basin                                                               
and  it's  her  belief  that   unless  the  [federal]  government                                                               
releases more  land, there probably  aren't any easy  answers for                                                               
increasing  volume  in  the  pipeline to  a  million  barrels  or                                                               
higher.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR STEVENS asked if AOGCC had  a goal of "the maximum volume                                                               
possible."                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied anything is  possible but unless the federal                                                               
government opens new areas, another  Prudhoe Bay is unlikely. She                                                               
said later in the presentation  she'd show some production graphs                                                               
that illustrate  about what  it takes to  make increments  in the                                                               
line.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if it was  the role of AOGCC or DNR to                                                               
manage the resource.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER replied  it's  the operator's  role  to manage  the                                                               
resource. AOGCC's role  is to assure that  the management results                                                               
in the greater ultimate recovery without waste.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked  if it was her  understanding that oil                                                               
production could  be increased in  the Prudhoe Bay,  Kuparuk, and                                                               
Alpine fields if more gas was injected into the wells.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  explained that facilities  have only so  much fluid                                                               
handling capacity  and when  a mature  field produces  more water                                                               
and  gas there  is less  room for  oil to  come through.  At that                                                               
point the  only way to  produce more oil  is to increase  the gas                                                               
handling or  water handling  facilities. She  said that  later in                                                               
the  presentation the  production  graphs for  Prudhoe will  show                                                               
that when  the gas  handling capacity  was increased,  the result                                                               
was an increase  in the oil rate. But that's  not cheap, so there                                                               
has to be  sufficient bang for the buck to  justify the buck. She                                                               
suggested that's  a question  to discuss  with the  operator, not                                                               
AOGCC.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN  asked her  to explain  to the  listening public                                                               
what she means when she uses the term "mature field."                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER said  she is referring primarily to  Prudhoe Bay and                                                               
Kuparuk.  Those  are  the  mother  lode and  both  have  been  in                                                               
production since the late 1970s  or early 1980s. She continued to                                                               
explain that  in the early  years, when  Prudhoe was a  black oil                                                               
field, the  operators recognized  the need to  maintain reservoir                                                               
pressure.  Typically that's  done by  reinjecting gas  and water.                                                               
Prudhoe didn't  produce a lot of  gas and water so  the operators                                                               
treated seawater and injected that  for pressure maintenance. She                                                               
said that as a field matures  the pressure drops a little bit and                                                               
more and more of the production is the injected gas and water.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
4:17:13 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  said his understanding of  the announcement                                                               
yesterday by  Mr. Mulva, [Chair  and CEO of  ConocoPhillips,] was                                                               
that one  proposal was to  build facilities to help  reinject gas                                                               
to increase pressure  and produce more oil. He asked  if that was                                                               
her understanding.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MS.   FOERSTER   replied  she   hadn't   talked   to  anyone   at                                                               
ConocoPhillips,  but  she suspects  that  Mr.  Malva was  talking                                                               
about   additional   gas   handling   capacity   and   additional                                                               
compression to  reinject the  gas. They've  done this  before and                                                               
there is a bang for that buck, she said.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI said  he's  trying to  figure  out at  what                                                               
point an operator has  to be told to do that  in order to extract                                                               
more of the resource and avoid a potential waste situation.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  responded the DNR or  the governor can talk  to the                                                               
operator about doing  any number of things, but  according to the                                                               
assistant attorney  general, an  operator can't  be forced  to do                                                               
anything  it can't  make money  doing.  If an  operator is  doing                                                               
something that  is going to  reduce the ultimate recovery  or put                                                               
any recovery  at risk, then the  AOGCC would step in  to stop the                                                               
activity or to suggest doing it another way.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR   PASKVAN   asked   Ms.   Foerster   to   continue   the                                                               
presentation.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER reminded  the committee that she  was discussing the                                                               
reasons  why  there can  be  a  time  gap between  discovery  and                                                               
production.  Another reason  might  be that  the reservoir  isn't                                                               
competitive  with   other  projects   the  operator   has  going.                                                               
Northstar, for  example, had a high  cost and low return  and the                                                               
operators could  invest elsewhere and make  more money. Sometimes                                                               
an operator  has bigger fish to  fry and lets a  project drop and                                                               
somebody  else picks  it  up.  Oooguruk is  an  example of  that.                                                               
Another  reason  might  be  that the  co-owners  can't  agree  on                                                               
whether or how to develop  the resource. The agreements among the                                                               
owners might  not be in  place to  even allow the  development as                                                               
with the  Kuparuk satellites. Permitting  could also be  the hold                                                               
up; CD-5 at  Alpine is an example of that.  Another possible hold                                                               
up is  litigation. A lot  of things  make it complicated  and for                                                               
whatever reason  it can  take a  long time to  get a  North Slope                                                               
field into production.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS FOERSTER displayed  a graph of Alaska's average  daily oil and                                                               
NGL production rate by year from  1960 to 2010 and said she likes                                                               
to  state  the  obvious;  Prudhoe Bay  and  Kuparuk  enabled  the                                                               
infrastructure on the  North Slope. In the 1960s  and early 1970s                                                               
there was just Cook Inlet. Prudhoe  Bay came on in the late 1970s                                                               
followed by  Kuparuk and Milne  Point in the 1980s.  A production                                                               
spike  at  Prudhoe  Bay  in  the late  1980s  occurred  when  the                                                               
pressure and other  benefits from water flooding  in enhanced oil                                                               
recovery  (EOR)   kicked  in.   Small  bumps  in   the  declining                                                               
production occurred  at Prudhoe Bay  in 1990 and 1993  when GHX-1                                                               
and  GHX-2 (gas  handling  expansion) were  completed. She  noted                                                               
that those are the kinds of  projects that enable the operator to                                                               
do more with the gas that they're getting more of.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:23:36 PM                                                                                                                    
The  steep  production decline  of  the  1990s  was slowed  by  a                                                               
miscible  injection expansion  (MIX) project,  which allowed  the                                                               
operator to do more gas cap  water injection (GCWI) and EOR. This                                                               
was  done to  augment  the pressure  support of  the  gas cap  to                                                               
prepare for a gas cap blowdown.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
The production  dip in 2006 was  likely due to the  shutdown that                                                               
resulted  from the  pipeline leaks,  but once  production resumed                                                               
the performance was  the same as before the  shutdown. Similar to                                                               
Prudhoe Bay,  Kuparuk benefited from  EOR in the late  1990s. She                                                               
noted  that Endicott,  Lisburne, Point  McIntyre as  well as  the                                                               
Prudhoe and  Kuparuk satellites were discovered  during the major                                                               
field development of  Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk but had  to wait on                                                               
alignment of ownership and other  issues before development could                                                               
go forward.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER pointed out that  the production decline stopped for                                                               
a short  time from 2000-2003  when the 700 million  barrel Alpine                                                               
field  and the  200 million  barrel Northstar  field came  on. At                                                               
that time Alpine was the largest  discovery in the last ten years                                                               
in  the  U.S.  She  opined  that  an  Alpine  would  need  to  be                                                               
discovered  every  three  years  in order  to  stem  the  current                                                               
decline and maintain status quo.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI mentioned  a  bill  under consideration  to                                                               
encourage a  gas-to-liquids plant  on the  North Slope  and asked                                                               
what  impact  could be  expected  in  the  form of  enhanced  oil                                                               
recovery from  the CO  spinoff  from a GTL  plant of,  say 70,000                                                               
                     2                                                                                                          
barrels.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER replied  the impact  would be  negative until  such                                                               
time that  Prudhoe Bay is ready  for blowdown. In fact,  it might                                                               
create a  bigger problem than  the intended solution.  At Prudhoe                                                               
Bay  the gas  that  comes  out of  the  reservoir  is needed  for                                                               
pressure maintenance  and a  lot of  that gas  and the  NGLs that                                                               
come  from it  are used  right there  or in  other fields  on the                                                               
North Slope.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
4:26:13 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI asked  if  2.7 bcf  offtake hadn't  already                                                               
been  authorized. He  recalled testimony  during AGIA  that AOGCC                                                               
though it  could be  ready to  authorize significantly  more than                                                               
that.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  reminded him  that during  that same  testimony she                                                               
said it  was easy for  the AOGCC to  say that because  a pipeline                                                               
was  10 years  away, but  if  a pipeline  magically appeared  the                                                               
AOGCC would  likely convene  an emergency  hearing and  take that                                                               
allowable away.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  asked  if  it was  possible  to  take  2.7                                                               
bcf/day right now and 4 bcf/day in the future.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  replied there will  be a time  in the future  to do                                                               
either, but not today.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
4:27:46 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked her to expand on that answer.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER responded it will  likely be 7-10 years before AOGCC                                                               
will  feel comfortable  with  a  major gas  sale  from the  North                                                               
Slope.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI questioned  why  AOGCC  authorized 2.7  bcf                                                               
offtake if it didn't feel it was possible to do.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied  that authorization was granted  in the late                                                               
1970s or early  1980s and she didn't know what  the people on the                                                               
commission  were   thinking  at  that  time.   She  reminded  the                                                               
committee  that  several  years  ago  the  current  commissioners                                                               
ordered  a  study  after  which   they  convened  a  hearing  and                                                               
determined  that because  there  was no  way for  the  gas to  go                                                               
anywhere until  the pipeline  was built, there  was no  reason to                                                               
remove the allowable. She reiterated  that the commission went on                                                               
record saying  that if the  good fairy magically made  a pipeline                                                               
appear the commission would convene an emergency hearing.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR   PASKVAN   asked   Ms.   Foerster   to   continue   the                                                               
presentation.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:28:58 PM                                                                                                                    
MS. FOERSTER  displayed a  graph and  explained that  embedded in                                                               
each  wedge  for the  particular  field  is all  the  development                                                               
drilling and  workover activity that is  essential to maintaining                                                               
the production rate and slowing decline from the fields.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
The next chart  is the same as the previous  with the addition of                                                               
oil price forecasts  in the background. She said  Alaska has been                                                               
fortunate that  in recent  years the  continued decline  in North                                                               
Slope  production volume  has  been offset  by  increases in  the                                                               
price of oil.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The pie chart on page 13 shows  the kinds of wells and the number                                                               
of each  kind that  were drilled throughout  Alaska in  2010. She                                                               
acknowledged that  the numbers may be  off by one or  two because                                                               
reports  are  sometimes  late  even  though  the  AOGCC  requires                                                               
operators to report within 30 days of completing a well.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
She said  that according to AOGCC  records, a total of  183 wells                                                               
were drilled  in 2010; 168  were on the  North Slope, 12  in Cook                                                               
Inlet, and 3 in other parts of  the state. On the North Slope 125                                                               
were  oil  producers,  39  were   service  wells  (i.e.  miscible                                                               
injectant,  water injection),  and 4  were exploratory  wells. In                                                               
Cook Inlet 4  wells were gas producers, 3  were exploratory wells                                                               
looking   for  gas,   3  were   exploratory  wells   looking  for                                                               
underground  coal   gasification,  and   2  were   exploring  for                                                               
geothermal. The  three wells that  were drilled elsewhere  in the                                                               
state  were all  looking for  geothermal. Alternate  energy wells                                                               
totaled 8.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
4:30:26 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR WAGONER asked where the coal wells were drilled.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  replied  they  were   the  CERI  (Colorado  Energy                                                               
Research Institute) underground coal gasification wells.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
The chart  on page 14  shows the timing of  prominent discoveries                                                               
on the North Slope  going back to 1950. The U.S.  price of oil is                                                               
in the background.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
She said  the next  chart shows the  number of  exploratory wells                                                               
targeting conventional oil or gas  that were drilled on the North                                                               
Slope from 1996-2010.  The columns are superimposed  atop the oil                                                               
price  graph. The  wells that  were  drilled over  more than  one                                                               
calendar year  were counted  only in the  year that  the operator                                                               
completed the activity.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN  asked if  Alaskans should  be alarmed  that the                                                               
chart shows  that just  4 exploratory wells  were drilled  on the                                                               
North Slope in 2010.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  pointed to  other  low  years and  suggested  that                                                               
sustained  low production  would be  cause for  alarm, not  a low                                                               
year here  and there.  There are  a number of  reasons for  a low                                                               
year not the least of which  is that operators could be busy with                                                               
new developments. For  example, Pioneer and E&I  have their hands                                                               
full developing Oooguruk and Nakiachuk.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  asked  if  the  same  rigs  are  used  for                                                               
exploratory wells as for development wells.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  replied it's  a yes  and no  answer. Some  rigs are                                                               
solely dedicated  to exploratory drilling  and lay down  when the                                                               
exploratory season  is over;  some rigs  can move  from place-to-                                                               
place and  some can't; and  some exploratory wells  require extra                                                               
capability and therefore  a special rig. For example,  a rig that                                                               
might drill a shallow well to  the west of Kuparuk couldn't drill                                                               
a Point Thomson well.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
4:34:41 PM                                                                                                                    
She said the next chart shows  the same price trend that's on the                                                               
previous slide  and the  same columns  but they're  subdivided by                                                               
operator. This visual  illustrates that in the  earlier years the                                                               
exploratory   drilling   was    done   by   ConocoPhillips,   its                                                               
predecessor,  and  BP.  After  2000,  BP's  activity  slowed  and                                                               
ConocoPhillips'  activity  has been  up  and  down. In  2004  and                                                               
beyond new  operators began  to show  up, which  is typical  of a                                                               
mature  basin.   But,  she  cautioned,  some   smaller  operators                                                               
shouldn't be  welcome in  the state.  She used  the analogy  of a                                                               
lion  - representing  Exxon  or BP  - killing  and  feeding on  a                                                               
wildebeest.  The birds  - representing  the Pioneers  and E&Is  -                                                               
move in next  followed eventually by the worms.  Right now Alaska                                                               
is attracting  a lot of  birds, and what  it doesn't want  is the                                                               
worms, she said.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:37:03 PM                                                                                                                    
MS.  FOERSTER   displayed  a  chart   depicting  the   number  of                                                               
development  and service  wells and  wellbores targeting  oil and                                                               
gas  that were  drilled on  the North  Slope from  1950-2010. The                                                               
legacy wells that  were drilled in the NPRA between  to 1940s and                                                               
1980s  were  not included.  The  U.S.  nominal  price of  oil  is                                                               
displayed  in the  background. She  observed that  any number  of                                                               
conclusions could be  drawn from the data. One could  be that the                                                               
increases in  activity conform  to increases  in price,  but that                                                               
only  holds until  2004.  Another conclusion  could  be that  the                                                               
spikes  and   dips  in  activity   correlate  with   major  field                                                               
developments.  She pointed  to  Prudhoe Bay  and  Kuparuk in  the                                                               
1970s  and 1980s  and then  to the  satellites and  Alpine. Other                                                               
conclusions  could also  be drawn  demonstrating that  statistics                                                               
can be used to prove anything.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
She  said the  next chart  also illustrates  the development  and                                                               
service wells and wellbores targeting  oil and gas drilled on the                                                               
North Slope, but  the date range was narrowed to  the most recent                                                               
15 years, 1996-2010.  The U.S. nominal price of oil  was again in                                                               
the  background.  Just  as  before,   she  said,  any  number  of                                                               
conclusions could be drawn, but none were overly obvious.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
4:38:54 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN  asked her  to explain  to the  listening public                                                               
the meaning and purpose of a "development well."                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER explained  that there  are  two or  three kinds  of                                                               
wells   that   an   operator  drills   during   exploration   and                                                               
development.  The  first  kind is  the  exploration  well,  which                                                               
includes dry  holes. Once a  find is made, delineation  wells are                                                               
drilled,  which are  still  typically  classified as  exploration                                                               
wells.  These  step-outs  tell  the   size  and  geology  of  the                                                               
reservoir including  fluid properties that the  operator needs to                                                               
know  in order  to determine  whether or  not the  find is  large                                                               
enough to develop. The foregoing  pre-development wells often are                                                               
throw-away wells that  are drilled cheaply and  less robustly and                                                               
wouldn't be  allowed to be used  as a development well.  Once the                                                               
operator finishes  gathering the date  the wells are  plugged and                                                               
abandoned. Occasionally  the delineation  wells are  built robust                                                               
enough to be used as a development well.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
The third kind  of wells are the development  service wells. They                                                               
are used to produce the oil or  gas, to reinject gas into the gas                                                               
cap, and dispose of water and EOR fluids.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked if the depiction  on page 18 was common or                                                               
typical of a mature field.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied the chart not  only shows what would be seen                                                               
in a  mature basin  where the  big field is  mature but  also the                                                               
little  fields that  have come  on since  the early  1990s. These                                                               
include  the Prudhoe  satellites, the  Kuparuk satellites,  Point                                                               
McIntyre, Alpine, Northstar, Oooguruk, and Nikaitchuq.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  asked if,  because of  improved technology,                                                               
164 wells in 2010 produce as much oil as 165 wells in 2005                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER replied  a well  drilled in  2010 may  have greater                                                               
capability  than  a well  drilled  in  1995 because  of  improved                                                               
technology.  For  example,  a  vertical   West  Sak  well  wasn't                                                               
commercial  in  the pilot  years  of  the 1980s,  but  horizontal                                                               
drilling  opened  a  lot  bigger   component  of  flow  into  the                                                               
reservoir. That was  a step change in technology  and the ability                                                               
to  drill multi-laterals  was another  step  change because  that                                                               
made it  possible to take  the one well  bore at the  surface and                                                               
drill additional well bores off of it fingering out down hole.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  PASKVAN asked  approximately when  technology for  both                                                               
horizontal drilling and multi-lateral drilling was first used.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  replied horizontal drilling technology  was used in                                                               
the West Sak about year 2000.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  asked  if  she  knew  if  development  and                                                               
service wells were capital costs  and operating costs, and if she                                                               
knew roughly the average cost per well.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER replied she didn't have  a good number for the total                                                               
cost for drilling a well but  it probably varies depending on the                                                               
type.  A replacement  well  probably isn't  a  capital cost,  but                                                               
upgrading or  getting new reserves  might be a capital  cost. She                                                               
said  her general  sense is  that capital  costs tend  to be  for                                                               
getting  new   reserves  or  improvements,  whereas   fixing  and                                                               
replacing things generally tend be operating costs.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
She said the chart on page 19  is the same as the previous chart,                                                               
but  the  columns  are  subdivided  to  indicate  the  number  of                                                               
wellbores by  operating company.  Again, the price  of oil  is in                                                               
the background.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH observed  that the graph on page 19  shows that BP                                                               
and ConocoPhillips were  very active on the North  Slope over the                                                               
last  15  years, whereas  ExxonMobil  didn't  show much  drilling                                                               
activity  during that  timeframe.  He asked  if ExxonMobil  owned                                                               
about 20 percent of Prudhoe Bay.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  clarified that  the  color  segments on  the  bars                                                               
represent  operatorship of  the  wells, not  ownership. The  only                                                               
area where ExxonMobil is the operator is Pt. Thomson.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  asked if  one party has  veto power  when a                                                               
new well  is drilled or  if all the  parties have to  have signed                                                               
separate agreements.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  replied every operating agreement  is different and                                                               
they change over  time. Typically, a majority of  the owners have                                                               
to agree, but it's a contract  so it's whatever the people making                                                               
the contract want it to be.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked her to continue.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
4:49:29 PM                                                                                                                    
MS.  FOERSTER  said   the  chart  on  page  20   shows  the  same                                                               
information  as the  previous chart,  but for  just the  wells BP                                                               
drilled. It  reflects an overall Slope-wide  decrease in activity                                                               
since  2005.  She  suggested  asking BP  what  the  numbers  mean                                                               
because she couldn't find an answer.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
The next chart shows the  same information for the ConocoPhillips                                                               
operated wells. There was a  decrease in drilling activity in the                                                               
West Sak  and Alpine in 2004-2008,  and then an increase  in 2010                                                               
due to the increase in multi-lateral wells at Kuparuk.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI noted that the  2010 data was reported as of                                                               
March 1, 2011  and asked what the deadline was  for reporting the                                                               
wells.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  replied AOGCC likes  to receive a report  within 30                                                               
of completing a well.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
The next  chart shows  the actual footage  drilled for  all wells                                                               
and wellbores  on the  North Slope from  1996-2010. The  price of                                                               
gas is shown in the  background. Green depicts development wells,                                                               
blue  depicts  service  wells,  and  yellow  depicts  exploratory                                                               
wells.  There were  no stratigraphic  wells  drilled during  this                                                               
time. She  drew attention to the  dip in 1999 and  explained that                                                               
was the year that BP and Arco were busy buying and being bought.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:52:07 PM                                                                                                                    
The chart  on page  23 shows  the number  of active  drilling and                                                               
workover rigs  for each  quarter from  2005-2010. The  West Coast                                                               
Spot  price curve  is in  the  background. She  explained that  a                                                               
drilling rig is used  to make a new open hole or  set casing in a                                                               
new  hole  and   a  workover  rig  is  used  to   fix  broken  or                                                               
underperforming wells.  Some rigs can  be used for  both drilling                                                               
and  workovers and  either type  can be  used to  complete a  new                                                               
well. The  next two charts  show the same information,  first for                                                               
active drilling rigs and next for workover rigs.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  said the next two  charts were inspired by  some of                                                               
the  questions Senator  Paskvan  asked in  earlier hearings.  The                                                               
first  one  shows   the  portion  of  the   workovers  that  were                                                               
attributed to  production enhancement  from 2003-2010.  These are                                                               
things  that help  a well  produce  more. The  red segments  show                                                               
perforation work,  which enhances production. The  green segments                                                               
show chemical and mechanical stimulation  work. Scale build up in                                                               
the wellbore  area can diminish  production and the  remedy might                                                               
be  to  pump acid  into  the  wellbore and  reservoir.  Hydraulic                                                               
fracturing  is another  type of  stimulation.  The blue  segments                                                               
show workovers to  isolate water or gas; the idea  is to plug off                                                               
things that don't bring money.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR FRENCH  asked her to confirm  that it's possible to  do a                                                               
workover on a well and that's not drilling a well.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER agreed that a workover  is one thing and drilling is                                                               
another.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  FRENCH  asked  her  to   confirm  that  a  workover  can                                                               
significantly  increase  production. Perforations,  for  example,                                                               
can give access to a whole new zone.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER agreed  that adding perforations can  give access to                                                               
a whole new  zone or an untapped  part of a zone.  She noted that                                                               
one of the biggest workover bangs is hydraulic fracturing.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  FRENCH asked  if  it's fair  to say  that  the level  of                                                               
activity in 2010 was above average over the last eight years.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER  opined that the production  enhancement activity in                                                               
2010 was  very healthy. Continuing,  she said the  purple segment                                                               
shows  work  to convert  wells  from  injectors to  producers  or                                                               
producers to injectors. The immediate  rate drops when a producer                                                               
well  is  converted  to  an  injector well  but  the  EOR  impact                                                               
provides a big bang.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
The chart  on page 27  depicts specific types of  maintenance and                                                               
repair  workover activity  on North  Slope wells  from 2003-2010.                                                               
The red segments  depict tubing and casing repair  work. As metal                                                               
corrodes,  holes  develop  resulting   in  losses  in  mechanical                                                               
integrity. The  AOGCC does not  allow producers to  produce wells                                                               
that don't have mechanical integrity;  the producer has to either                                                               
shut  the well  in and  secure it  or fix  it. The  green segment                                                               
depicts pump  repairs or replacement;  many wells  have down-hole                                                               
electric submersible pumps, and if one  breaks the pipe has to be                                                               
removed. The  blue segments depict scale  or corrosion inhibition                                                               
work.  She  described  the  purple segment  as  a  hodgepodge  of                                                               
miscellaneous things.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
4:57:16 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked  if the major increase in  repairs in 2006                                                               
and after was related to the spill at Prudhoe.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER  replied  the  events related  to  the  spill  were                                                               
surface  infrastructure repairs.  The chart  represents down-hole                                                               
maintenance and  repair. The  only correlation  is that  both the                                                               
surface facilities and the down-hole  facilities are getting old.                                                               
She noted that  there was a lot of scale  and corrosion inhibitor                                                               
work done  in 2009  and that preventative  work might  save money                                                               
over time.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked what takeaway  message the last two charts                                                               
convey.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER said  she  likes  to draw  an  analogy  to the  way                                                               
somebody treats  their car.  They either take  their car  back to                                                               
the shop when  something needs to be fixed or  they park it along                                                               
the road when  something breaks and they walk  away. Walking away                                                               
bodes poorly  for the  car. These slides  show the  operators are                                                               
still taking the car to the shop  to be fixed and even putting in                                                               
a  new  radio  or  new  seat covers.  This  shows  they're  doing                                                               
enhancement activities as  well as repairs. They're  not about to                                                               
give up on the car and park it by the side of the road.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MS. FOERSTER observed that the  graphs reflect healthy work being                                                               
done on a mature field.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  asked how  job intensive  workover activity                                                               
is versus development wells versus exploratory wells.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER replied  they  are all  job  intensive, but  remote                                                               
exploration is even  more so. Even a simple workover  can be very                                                               
labor  intensive because  every procedure  that's performed  on a                                                               
well has several jobs associated with it.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR PASKVAN asked what she  sees as the future of production                                                               
on the North Slope.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MS.  FOERSTER   replied  the  lion   is  still  chewing   on  the                                                               
wildebeest. Unless another  wildebeest walks by and  he grabs it,                                                               
the  lion  will  fill  and  go  away  and  the  jackals,  hyenas,                                                               
vultures,  and crows  will  stay and  nibble  on smaller  things.                                                               
That's  as  far   down  the  chain  as  she  wants   to  go.  New                                                               
opportunities probably don't  exist in this playground  so it's a                                                               
good thing the lion is still here, she stated.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  PASKVAN   thanked  the   AOGCC  and  Ms.   Foerster  in                                                               
particular.